Question 1

What does this page track?

Accepted Answer

Live prices from Kalshi and Polymarket on every 2026 Senate and Governor race, chamber control, and major politics trackers, with movement history and a graded accuracy record for both venues.

Question 2

Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?

Accepted Answer

They are different marketplaces with different traders and settlement rules. Kalshi settles when a winner is sworn in, with accelerated settlement on a media consensus. Polymarket resolves when AP, Fox News, and NBC all call the race, or on official certification. Small gaps are normal; large gaps are what this page exists to show.

Question 3

Are election market prices accurate?

Accepted Answer

We grade every resolved market against what actually happened and publish the record with sample sizes. The numbers on this page report what markets price. They are not predictions or recommendations.